Iran-US Talks: How Long Can Enrichment Pause While Nuclear Sites Remain Damaged?

One of the more unusual technical dimensions of the current Iran-US nuclear negotiations involves a problem that did not exist when previous agreements were negotiated: significant portions of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure have been destroyed by US military strikes. That damage has become both an obstacle and an unexpected variable in the current talks.
Iran’s nuclear sites were hit in US bombing campaigns, leaving centrifuges destroyed and facilities partially inoperable. Experts believe the destruction could prevent meaningful enrichment for as long as three years — making any agreement to “pause” enrichment partly redundant, at least in the near term. The duration of any formal suspension is therefore complicated by physical reality.
Despite this, Iran has not conceded its right to enrich domestically, and the issue of how long a suspension might last — and what conditions would need to be met before enrichment could resume — remains a live negotiating question. Iran is particularly resistant to agreeing to a timeline that outlasts the physical repair of its own infrastructure, as that would effectively extend the suspension beyond what the bombing already achieved.
Foreign Minister Araghchi described Tuesday’s Geneva session as “more constructive” than the first round and said both sides had agreed on general guiding principles. He indicated the talks would continue with an exchange of written proposals and a third meeting in approximately two weeks. The enrichment duration question is expected to be among the key issues in that next phase.
The IAEA currently has limited visibility into the condition of Iran’s bombed facilities. Its inspectors in Iran lack detailed knowledge of the damage or of how many centrifuges could be reactivated and how quickly. Full IAEA access to these sites — a prerequisite for any credible deal — remains one of the central unresolved issues.