US Oil Prices Continue Surge as Iran War Hits Key Infrastructure for Third Straight Week

US oil prices are continuing their surge as the Iran war marks its third week of hostilities, with fresh attacks on oil infrastructure and ongoing shipping lane blockades keeping markets volatile. Analyst Patrick De Haan projects that Monday’s average pump price could reach $3.85 per gallon, and says $4 gasoline is still within the range of possibility. The conflict has evolved into one of the most significant external shocks to hit US energy markets in decades.
The origin of the current crisis lies in the February 28 onset of the US-Israel campaign against Iran, which triggered an immediate and sustained rise in global oil prices. The national gasoline average has since climbed 23% from below $3 per gallon to $3.70, reflecting three weeks of progressive supply disruption. Consumer groups and transportation industry leaders have voiced alarm at the speed and scale of the price increase.
Friday’s US strikes on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil processing hub, added significant new pressure to global energy supply. Iran’s continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which normally handles about 20% of the world’s oil traffic—has removed millions of barrels per day from global markets. Brent crude fluctuated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude dipped to $94 after briefly touching $100 the previous day.
The most extreme domestic price impacts have been recorded in California, where state averages exceed $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations have listed prices above $8. Commercial transport industries face potential diesel costs of $5.05 to $5.15 per gallon across the country. Oil company leaders, including Exxon CEO Darren Woods and executives from Conoco and Chevron, have engaged directly with the White House to raise urgent concerns about supply deterioration and speculative inflation.
Wall Street gained slightly Monday following a temporary softening in crude prices, with the S&P 500 climbing around 1% in early trading. Oil producer stocks have reached historic highs since the conflict began, reflecting the sector’s financial gains from elevated oil prices. American consumers, by contrast, continue to experience a growing financial burden that will only ease once the conflict and its associated supply disruptions come to an end.